--- title: "Field Notes No. 003 · Managing Chaos · Irina Kostina" url: https://kostina.online/projects/field-notes/003/ language: en description: "Field Notes No. 003 “Managing Chaos”: Irina Kostina’s original piece on the 2026 catering market, editorial version." updated: 2026-10-16 author: Irina Kostina (Ирина Костина) contact: https://me.kostina.online alternates: - https://kostina.online/projects/field-notes/003/ - https://kostina.online/projects/field-notes/003/index.md --- > Agent version of the page: the readable text without navigation, scripts and decoration. The HTML page is the reference; quote with a link to it. [← Field Notes](https://kostina.online/projects/field-notes/) Archive article by the author · 2026 Editorial version: company names are withheld for confidentiality. Kostina · Field Notes No. 003 Industry · Catering Market 2026 v.2.0 2026 IK Irina Kostina Managing partner · Novikov Space speaker · creator of the “Catering from Scratch” course · Wedding Awards jury member · Catering Heroes Club mentor · chair of the State Examination Commission · Catering Day speaker ≈ 10 min read 6 sections · 1 case Contents Index § 01 Market 2026: five signals ↓ § 02 The expectation gap ↓ § 03 Economics: dining room vs catering ↓ § 04 Case [name withheld] ↓ § 05 Four conditions for profitability ↓ § 06 The final formula ↓ § 0101 Market 5 signals ## The market is alive, but no longer about “tasty”. There are more events, clients have money, but in return they demand a high level, a show and flawless organisation. In 2026, catering is not a kitchen on the road but **the ability to run an event** without any visible failure. Simply feeding people is no longer enough. The client is not buying a menu but the confidence that the venue, service, visuals, logistics and team will come together on one evening. № Signal · what has changed Axis 01 #### There are more events — and more demands Growing demand does not mean an easy market. Every event has to look like a finished portfolio case. Volume 02 #### Corporate and private clients are back After the cutbacks of previous years, budgets have recovered, but clients have become more demanding about results. Demand 03 #### Food is no longer the centre The centre now is the operator’s experience, the team, the service and the ability to keep the event under control. Focus 04 #### Food stations, live cooking and set design have become the baseline What was once sold as extra spectacle is now part of the standard in the mid and upper segments. Standard 05 #### The average spend is rising — the margin does not have to Inflation in food, logistics and staff costs eats up budget growth. Profit rests on processes. Margin § 0202 Gap Expectations / reality ## The client sees the price. The operator sees the variables. Against the background of inflation, clients often read a rising price as rising profit. In reality, catering is **a project business with dozens of variables**. A mistake in one variable hits the whole event. What the client says #### Expecting the picture without the estimate - “I want it like on *Pinterest*, but with a budget for a school prom” - “It should be a *wow*, but without extra costs” - “We need something *unusual*, but everyone has to like it” What actually happens #### Where the economics break down - They save *on service*, not on food — and it is service that ruins the impression - They underestimate *logistics*, especially at off-site venues - They think catering = “*food + waiters*”. In fact, there are dozens of variables > Marginalia > § 02.1 Catering is not about food, but about *managing chaos* so that guests see only the celebration. What works is not just a menu but a **concept**. Not loud service, but service that is “invisible, yet perfect”. Not the size of the company, but *flexibility and speed of response*. In 2026, the winners are not the biggest but the most adaptable. § 0303 Economics Dining room vs off-site 3 parameters ## Catering does not sell a table. It sells an event. Hotels and restaurants move into catering not because it is fashionable. They already have **a kitchen, equipment, purchasing, staff, storage and brand trust**. When these resources are loaded with off-site work, the economics start to add up. Parameter Restaurant · dining room Catering Seating capacity 80 seats A fixed limit of space 50 → *500 guests* Scale depends on resources and team Average spend 4 000 — 7 000 ₽ Dish, drink, table service 10 000 — *15 000 ₽* Food, service, rentals, logistics, decor Markup structure Food A limited revenue structure A *package* of services Furniture, textiles, tableware, bar, equipment 01 · Resources #### No need to start *from scratch* An operating restaurant already has a brand, a client base, a team and infrastructure. 02 · Downtime #### The kitchen *is not idle* Off-site orders load existing capacity and turn downtime into turnover. 03 · Volume #### 120 guests = *several days* of the dining room A single banquet can bring in the revenue of several restaurant shifts. § 0404 Case [name withheld] 2010 → 2026 ## Case [name withheld]: the financial model after closing the dark kitchen. A real case · A practitioner’s experience 2010 → 2026 ### In-house production closed. The model *rebuilt* around the group’s restaurants. “Since 2010 I have worked in the catering division of [name withheld]. Until 2020 it was the [name withheld] project, but because of the pandemic we completely closed the dark kitchen, our own production, and completely *rebuilt the financial model*, in which we have now worked successfully with the group’s restaurants for 6 years. My experience confirms that in most cases there are a number of projects whose budgets exceed *1/10 of a restaurant’s revenue*.” 01 Request The guest describes their wishes. The request then turns not into a menu but into *an event project*. 02 Assembling the menu and restaurants Sales managers select restaurants of the [name withheld] group and build *a single menu* for the client. 2 → 6 Restaurants that can go to one project 1 ⁄ 10 Of a restaurant’s revenue can be covered by one project 6years Working in the new financial model The difficulty of the model is not in the idea itself but in **coordination**. With early set-ups and large volumes, bringing several restaurants together at one venue is hard but achievable when the team works well together. The high price in the upper segment means no participant is left at a loss. § 0505 Conditions 4 points no alternatives ## Profit appears only under four conditions. For a restaurant or hotel, catering can become **a second financial engine**. But not as “an extra service run on leftovers”. It is *a separate line of business* that needs its own owner, processes and infrastructure. 01 #### Separate *processes* Catering cannot be a tail of the main kitchen. It has its own assembly, timing and responsibility. 02 #### Costed *logistics* Routes, transport, temperature control, set-up and dismantling must be part of the model, not improvisation. 03 #### Own *equipment* base Furniture, textiles, tableware, bar and equipment often bring a higher margin than food. Without your own base, the margin goes to rentals. 04 #### An operational *owner* You need a person who lives this line of business, not someone who deals with it occasionally between other tasks. § 06 The final formula ## A restaurant feeds *guests*. Catering feeds the business. Catering becomes profitable not because the spend is higher, but because *restaurant infrastructure* starts to work as a system: kitchen, team, storage, purchasing, equipment and brand go beyond the dining room. If you enter the market now, you must enter *not with the idea of “cooking well”*, but with an operating model that works with no room for error. That is why the outlook for this line of business over the next **5–7 years** remains strong. BOARD · object MATERIAL · material The remaining circle